Frontex Risk Analysis Network Quarterly Update Jan-Mar 2013

In Q1 2013 all indicators of irregular migration and asylum exchanged under the FRAN and EDF-RAN were reduced in comparison with the final months of 2012. In most cases these declines were interpreted as consistent with the cycle of seasonal variation, whereby the first few months of each year are usually as-sociated with reduced pressure at the border compared to other times of the year. This was especially true of asylum applications that have declined by 12–24% at the beginning of each year since data collection began in 2008. Detections of document fraud also showed signs of seasonal decrease, both in terms of entry at the external border and on intra-Schengen flights.

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